About a week and a half ago, when I looked, iPredict showed approximately a 63% probability that there would be a National Prime Minister after the 2017 general election in New Zealand, and a 37% probability that there would be a Labour Prime Minister. Here’s what that looks like as a horizontal bar:
The problem with this way of looking at it is that (especially in New Zealand, with a proportional voting system), there’s a temptation to interpret the proportions as vote shares, rather than as probabilities. And even when I’ve got the idea of vote shares out of my mind, I can still be inclined to interpret it as a prediction that National will win the 2017 election. It’s not; it’s an estimate that there is a 63% probability that National will win the election.
How can I encourage myself to understand this intuitively? Continue reading Dice displays to prompt intuitive understanding of probabilities